The case for all 32 NFL teams to make Super Bowl LV in the 2020 season, from the Jags to Chiefs


In advance of a 2020 NFL season in which anything else and the whole thing seems to be on the desk, it handiest turns out proper to put in combination our annual preview of the way every of the league’s 32 teams may win the Super Bowl. It may appear wild when remaining 12 months’s winner wasn’t precisely an dissatisfied, after all, however the 49ers went from a 4-12 season with the second-worst document in soccer all the method to inside of a play or two of glory. Here’s what we wrote then:

“The 49ers are more than likely the ideally suited surprise-division-winner choose in the league, which might propel them to a 2016 Falcons-esque run in January.”

San Francisco received its department, conveniently manhandled the Vikings and Packers to win the NFC after which blew a lead in the fourth quarter of Super Bowl LIV. It technically happened in February, however another way, that one turns out beautiful on level.

In this workout, we attempt to discover a believable state of affairs in which each NFL workforce may win a championship. Since teams cannot win except they get into the postseason, many of those write-u.s.element how a workforce may exceed expectancies and finally end up in an positive state of affairs come January. Obviously, those are 32 other situations. I do not want or hope for accidents to any participant, however the truth is that teams at the decrease finish of the chance spectrum more than likely want an harm or two to an opposing quarterback to have a viable trail towards a department identify, let by myself a championship.

The teams are ranked in accordance to their chance of profitable the Super Bowl by way of ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI), and I even have added every teams’ odds from Caesars Sportsbook by way of William Hill. In different phrases, those are not my predictions or estimates of every workforce’s Super Bowl probabilities. In this universe, I’ll take the Chiefs over the Buccaneers in Tampa, Florida, on Feb. 7, 2021. Let’s see how issues may play out in 31 different universes:

Jump to:
NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SF

Chance to win Super Bowl LV: Less than 0.1%
Chance to make the playoffs: 4.3%
Caesars’ Super Bowl odds: +25000

Gardner Minshew, Super Bowl champion? This checklist has to get started someplace, and whilst the Jaguars no doubt appear to be they are rebuilding after buying and selling away defensive finish Yannick Ngakoue and protection Ronnie Harrison remaining week, it is not unattainable to assemble a trail in which they make it to the postseason. Just take a look at the AFC South. The Texans are anticipated to decline. The Titans have little underneath middle in the back of oft-injured quarterback Ryan Tannehill. The Colts have a 38-year-old quarterback in Philip Rivers who appeared like he may well be toast remaining season. If Rivers’ time is up and Tannehill will get harm, this department is broad open.

There’s sufficient of a core right here for the Jaguars to a minimum of be aggressive if issues destroy proper. The offensive line is forged, particularly if Cam Robinson will get again not off course. Jacksonville’s broad receivers are not spectacular on paper, however they are younger, and there is all the time a possibility DJ Chark morphs right into a famous person or rookie second-round choose Laviska Shenault is excellent from Day 1. The entrance seven has skill with Josh Allen, Myles Jack and Joe Schobert, and the protection provides a couple of first-rounders to the fold in edge rusher K’Lavon Chaisson and cornerback CJ Henderson.

It’s tricky to consider the Jaguars being nice, but when they may be able to get to common and their department stinks, that may well be sufficient. In 2011, the Giants made it to the postseason with a 9-7 document in spite of being outscored by way of six issues. Once they were given into the playoffs, regardless that, they stopped turning the ball over, were given sizzling and ran the desk, even if they have been underdogs in 3 of the 4 contests.

Chance to win Super Bowl LV: Less than 0.1%
Chance to make the playoffs: 7.4%
Caesars’ Super Bowl odds: +10000

The simplest method to grossly outplay projections is to recuperate quarterback play than the marketplace expects. The Bengals have a quarterback with a large ceiling in Joe Burrow, who simply ran off arguably the best season in college football history at LSU. Burrow’s ultimate school season interprets to an NFL passer ranking of 143.7, and whilst that isn’t in the playing cards, what if he’s a top-10 quarterback as a rookie? Cincinnati used to be beneath alternative point at positions corresponding to left take on and linebacker a 12 months in the past; simply bettering the ones positions to ok could be important upgrades.

I’m positive about the Bengals’ possibilities of bettering in 2020, however it is going to be tricky for them to emerge out of the AFC North. Even if the Ravens take a step backward after a 14-2 season, they will have to nonetheless be in the thick of the playoff hunt. The Browns be expecting to enhance after changing trainer Freddie Kitchens, and the Steelers may rank amongst the ideally suited teams in soccer if Ben Roethlisberger is again to his previous self after elbow surgical operation. We’ve observed moribund franchises rescued and straight away driven again into the playoffs by way of the proper quarterback choose — suppose the Colts with Andrew Luck in 2012 — however the Bengals more than likely would wish the department to cross their method to have a believable trail to the Super Bowl.

Chance to win Super Bowl LV: Less than 0.1%
Chance to make the playoffs: 6.0%
Caesars’ Super Bowl odds: +15000

Great teams usually dominate the line of scrimmage, and whilst I’ve issues about the offensive line, Washington may have considered one of the league’s ideally suited defensive traces. Washington has 5 first-rounders alongside its entrance seven, together with 4 defensive linemen in Montez Sweat, Daron Payne, Jonathan Allen and rookie No. 2 total choose Chase Young. (Its ideally suited lineman may well be All-Underrated Team member Matt Ioannidis.) Jack Del Rio’s monitor document as a defensive coordinator is excellent; it will hardly ever be a shock if this have been considered one of the league’s largest risers on protection.

Projecting an efficient offense is more challenging, even supposing Washington does have younger individuals with the attainable to make transformative leaps in quarterback Dwayne Haskins, broad receiver Terry McLaurin and working again Antonio Gibson. The Cowboys and Eagles, anticipated to compete for the NFC East identify, are already coping with critical harm problems. It may now not appear to be Washington is remotely shut to a playoff berth after a 3-13 season in 2019, however its most up-to-date two department titles have come after seasons in which it went 4-12 and 5-11. The 49ers added the moment total choose to a deep defensive position remaining season and rode Nick Bosa & Co. all the method to the Super Bowl; may Washington observe in their footsteps?

Chance to win Super Bowl LV: Less than 0.1%
Chance to make the playoffs: 6.3%
Caesars’ Super Bowl odds: +12500

Carolina may have one thing in the ballpark of 10 new starters as a part of new trainer Matt Rhule’s rebuild. It’s honest to say that we usually represent that kind of roster churn as a damaging, particularly in a season in which we predict continuity to be extra essential and treasured than standard.

For a Panthers workforce that collapsed over the moment part of 2019, regardless that, that refresh may well be a favorable. Quarterback Teddy Bridgewater will have to be a vital improve on Kyle Allen and the injured model of Cam Newton. Trading for Russell Okung value the workforce Trai Turner, however a wholesome Okung is an above-average lineman at a left take on spot the Panthers have struggled to fill. There’s a couple of younger stars already on the roster in broad receiver DJ Moore, offensive take on Taylor Moton and working again Christian McCaffrey, and offensive coordinator Joe Brady could be the next Sean McVay.

All of the ones enhancements are on offense, so it is no shock that the protection is predicted to be what slows down Carolina in 2020. If defensive coordinator Phil Snow can coax giant seasons out of defensive linemen Kawann Short and Brian Burns, the Panthers can be a aggressive workforce beautiful briefly. There’s so much forward of them in the NFC South, however the two teams which are anticipated to compete for the department identify are quarterbacked by way of guys who’re 41 and 43 years previous. If Drew Brees and Tom Brady each fall off the getting older cliff, this department would be broad open.

Chance to win Super Bowl LV: 0.1%
Chance to make the playoffs: 11.7%
Caesars’ Super Bowl odds: +5000

If the Giants win a Super Bowl, we’re going to all owe Dave Gettleman a large apology. It’s unattainable to consider them making that sudden soar with out giant seasons from a few of the basic supervisor’s maximum arguable choices. Running again Saquon Barkley would have to be an MVP candidate. Quarterback Daniel Jones would have to triumph over a tricky early agenda to make a Carson Wentz-esque second-year soar. And on a workforce this is crying out for a front-seven piece to excel, former Jets first-rounder Leonard Williams would wish to produce like the franchise participant Gettleman tagged him as this spring.

While the offense is loaded with younger gamers who may coalesce in the event that they set up to get on the area in combination for any period of time, Gettleman additionally wishes his investments in veteran defenders corresponding to Williams, linebacker Blake Martinez and defensive backs James Bradberry and Logan Ryan to repay. Like Washington, New York depends upon the Cowboys and Eagles suffering with accidents to stand up the NFC East ranks. And as any one who adopted the 2007 and 2011 teams is aware of, the handiest factor the Giants want to do to have a shot at profitable a Super Bowl is sneak into the postseason.

Chance to win Super Bowl LV: 0.1%
Chance to make the playoffs: 14.0%
Caesars’ Super Bowl odds: +10000

If the Dolphins set up to parlay their 2019 tank consultation right into a identify twelve months later, we are going to see teams all over the NFL making an attempt to observe their playbook. Miami added extra skill this offseason than another workforce, together with six of the first 70 choices in April’s draft and someplace round 8 new starters in loose company. Coach Brian Flores did a very good activity of protecting a workforce with replacement-level gamers in many spots motivated {and professional} in 2019; now, he has the probability to paintings with a better point of skill throughout the board.

We wouldn’t have an enormous pattern or monitor document of teams with this type of roster churn 12 months over 12 months to get a way of the way they may do. My ideally suited bet is that we’re going to see some promising video games blended with moments when the Dolphins battle to coalesce, however there is a probability that they flip issues up faster than we predict. The AFC East is up for grabs, and if the Fins shopped successfully this offseason, they might be in the image for a department identify after a sizzling get started.

Miami begins with the Patriots, Bills after which a sport in opposition to the Jaguars on Thursday evening soccer. If it begins 3-0, then Miami will have to be atop the department with enormously shifted possibilities of making it into January.

Chance to win Super Bowl LV: 0.1%
Chance to make the playoffs: 16.9%
Caesars’ Super Bowl odds: +6000

With Detroit a classy choose to win the NFC North, I’m already on record as suggesting the Lions will improve in 2020. Back in January, I laid out the similarities between the Lions and last year’s 49ers, a workforce that I projected as likely to improve before the season.

To make a deep playoff run, the Lions want to flip round a protection that has ranked 21st and 23rd in its first two seasons underneath trainer Matt Patricia, or even that used to be with now-traded cornerback Darius Slay. Detroit may have as many as six new starters on protection, and whilst I’m skeptical that Patricia’s plan of stocking up on Patriots gamers Bill Belichick did not need to stay is a nice concept, the ones guys may nonetheless be an improve on what the Lions rolled out a 12 months in the past.

If the protection can simply enhance to ok, some higher success in the fourth quarter and the go back of Matthew Stafford may push the Lions into the nine- to 10-win vary, which might be sufficient to win the NFC North.

Chance to win Super Bowl LV: 0.3%
Chance to make the playoffs: 22.4%
Caesars’ Super Bowl odds: +3000

While the Raiders are pursuing a unique trail to important growth than the Dolphins, they are in a similar fashion depending on a bounty of draft selections and a chain of free-agent signings to push their skill point ahead from week to week. Unfortunately, Las Vegas’ roster does not glance slightly as excellent as it could have on paper heading into camp, with broad receiver Tyrell Williams hitting injured reserve, protection Damarious Randall now not taking part in nicely sufficient to make the workforce and third-round transformed working again Lynn Bowden being traded to Miami without ever taking a snap for the team.

And like the Lions, the Raiders want to enhance on protection to push for the postseason. They hope to rebuild the heart in their protection with free-agent additions Cory Littleton, Nick Kwiatkoski and Maliek Collins becoming a member of protection Johnathan Abram, who neglected the ultimate 15 video games of 2019 with a shoulder harm. I’m now not certain the Raiders have sufficient to get up to the Chiefs, but when Patrick Mahomes misses time, Las Vegas might be well-positioned to stand up the standings in the AFC West.

Chance to win Super Bowl LV: 0.3%
Chance to make the playoffs: 23.0%
Caesars’ Super Bowl odds: +10000

Honestly, after all the bizarre issues that took place to the Jets remaining 12 months, the handiest factor more bizarre may well be competing for a Super Bowl identify in 2020. Adam Gase’s workforce is already down its height two defenders after buying and selling away protection Jamal Adams and shedding linebacker C.J. Mosley to an opt-out, however New York quietly ranked 11th in defensive DVOA a year ago in spite of fielding what Football Outsiders famous used to be the maximum injured protection in the league.

A large Jets soar would more than likely require Sam Darnold to be the ideally suited quarterback in the department. At his ideally suited, a wholesome Darnold nonetheless has that kind of upside. If you’re taking his 16 ideally suited video games as far as a professional, the Southern California product would have averaged 8.2 yards in line with try, thrown 30 landing passes in opposition to 17 interceptions and posted a passer ranking of 100.2. The Jets rebuilt their offense over the summer time, and simply 3 of the gamers who began along Darnold on offense in Week 1 a 12 months in the past stay on the roster. Gase as soon as had a name as an offensive genius, and if he can get the ones items to come in combination, this workforce may shock.

Chance to win Super Bowl LV: 0.4%
Chance to make the playoffs: 24.1%
Caesars’ Super Bowl odds: +6000

Are the Cardinals this 12 months’s Browns? With Kyler Murray having a look like a classy MVP choose in his moment season, the Cards shelled out a critical draft pick to cross after a brand new No. 1 wideout in DeAndre Hopkins, simply as the Browns did with Odell Beckham Jr. for Baker Mayfield. In Cleveland’s case, with regards to the whole thing that may have went fallacious did so, and everyone who gave the impression to be on the cusp of one thing nice with the Browns were given fired.

That state of affairs is believable for the Cardinals, however there is additionally the upside of Murray taking the Lamar Jackson trail and this workforce having a look extra like the 2019 Ravens. Baltimore performed nicely however used to be additionally buoyed by way of a vulnerable department, with the Browns collapsing, the Steelers shedding Ben Roethlisberger for a lot of the 12 months and the Bengals completing with the NFL’s worst document. It could be tricky to see that very same kind of crisis marketing campaign in the NFC West, the place the 49ers, Rams and Seahawks would all be anticipated to compete for the postseason. But who would have anticipated the 49ers to make it to the Super Bowl a 12 months in the past?



Ryan Clark breaks down which quarterbacks on new teams will carry out nicely and which can battle in their new properties.

If Murray is an MVP candidate, the Cardinals have sufficient skill to win the West. And whilst it is a four-game pattern, they are the handiest energetic workforce to by no means lose a house playoff sport since the merger.

Chance to win Super Bowl LV: 0.6%
Chance to make the playoffs: 36.6%
Caesars’ Super Bowl odds: +5500

You’ll realize that there is a beautiful important soar between the playoff odds of the Cardinals and the ones of the Texans. I’ve in comparison this model of the Texans to the Tony Romo-era Cowboys, most commonly as a result of they are constructed round a core of stars, a few of whom battle to keep wholesome. If you want to inform me at this time that it’s going to get complete 16-game seasons out of quarterback Deshaun Watson; broad receivers Brandin Cooks and Will Fuller; working again David Johnson; offensive take on Laremy Tunsil; front-seven items J.J. Watt, Whitney Mercilus and Zach Cunningham; and cornerback Bradley Roby, Houston could be in nice form to compete for the AFC identify. This core has that kind of skill.

Some of the ones guys are perennial harm issues, regardless that, and everyone seems to be matter to the random nature of accidents in an NFL season. The Texans have a top-heavy roster with little intensity throughout the board, so if everybody remains wholesome, they can be a 12-win workforce and finally end up with home-field merit as the height seed in the AFC.

Say what you need about Bill O’Brien as a body of workers govt, however the Houston trainer has received 4 department titles in 5 seasons, with handiest Watson’s injury-hit 2017 as an exception. The Texans additionally beat the Chiefs, Patriots and Titans in the common season a 12 months in the past. At their ideally suited, they’re a drive to be reckoned with.

Chance to win Super Bowl LV: 0.6%
Chance to make the playoffs: 34.1%
Caesars’ Super Bowl odds: +4500

While I already projected the Chargers to enhance and constructed a few of my optimism on extra Derwin James in 2020, the dream of a wholesome workforce fell to the wayside as soon as the star safety went down with a torn meniscus in camp. James is out for the 12 months, and broad receiver Mike Williams is questionable for Week 1 with a shoulder harm. For the Chargers to shock, they may be able to’t stay losing stars and above-average starters this early in the season.

If they may be able to stay maximum in their key individuals wholesome, no person will have to doubt the skill in this roster. L.A. is creating a quarterback exchange in changing stalwart Philip Rivers with Tyrod Taylor, and whilst Taylor’s temporary run with the Browns was a disaster, imagine that he used to be operating underneath Hue Jackson at the time. Taylor’s three-year spell with the Bills was better than you might think, with Buffalo score 9th and 10th in offensive DVOA in Taylor’s first two years as a starter sooner than issues arose in Year 3.

The Chargers more than likely wouldn’t have sufficient to beat out the Chiefs over a complete season, however they have been in a position to play Patrick Mahomes & Co. more difficult than many anticipated. Remember that the Chargers got here again to beat the Chiefs with a two-point conversion, 29-28, as a part of their run to the playoffs in 2018. With a run-heavy offense attacking Kansas City’s most evident weak spot, it would not be surprising if the Chargers pulled an dissatisfied in 2020. If that is sufficient to swing the department their method, Joey Bosa, Melvin Ingram and the protection could be a tricky out in January.

Chance to win Super Bowl LV: 0.7%
Chance to make the playoffs: 32.8%
Caesars’ Super Bowl odds: +5000

Can it all come in combination for Drew Lock? The largest query surrounding the Broncos is whether or not their second-year quarterback has the skill to triumph over a couple of questionable tackles and excel. Outside of the ones two spots, Denver turns out to be loaded on offense with younger skill, and it has so much to like on protection, the place trainer Vic Fangio will as soon as once more have the products and services of Bradley Chubb after the former 5th total choose tore his ACL in 2019.

The 2018 Bears received 12 video games with Fangio’s protection main the league in takeaways and their offense overcoming a tender, restricted quarterback by way of surrounding him with guns. The Bears did not get a long way in the postseason on account of their kicking woes, however it is not unattainable to consider Fangio’s present workforce making an attempt to be triumphant with a identical blueprint in 2020. The largest factor status in their method, after all, is Patrick Mahomes. In addition to two video games in opposition to the Chiefs, FPI tasks the Broncos to play the league’s third-toughest agenda. If they make it to the postseason, they’re going to deserve it.

Chance to win Super Bowl LV: 0.7%
Chance to make the playoffs: 31.7%
Caesars’ Super Bowl odds: +6000

Before the 2016 season, no person used to be in particular positive about the Falcons. Las Vegas pegged their Super Bowl chances at +8000. FPI had them at 0.5%. They have been coming off of an 8-Eight season and had neglected the playoffs 3 consecutive instances. Their Kyle Shanahan-led offense had simply completed 21st in issues in line with sport. A Super Bowl didn’t appear to be in the playing cards.

You know what took place. Quarterback Matt Ryan performed in the back of a wholesome, productive offensive line and received league MVP. A tender protection struggled all over the common season sooner than coming in combination in December and January. The Falcons received 4 immediately to finish the 12 months and end 11-5, blew out the Seahawks and Packers in the playoffs after which ruled maximum of Super Bowl LI against the Patriots sooner than they gassed out.

This 12 months’s Falcons are proper round the place that 2016 workforce used to be sooner than it broke out. With 5 first-rounders on their offensive line and 10 on offense altogether, the Falcons may hope for an offensive resurgence with Ryan, who would wish a go back to shape from working again Todd Gurley and a breakout 12 months from tight finish Hayden Hurst. That earlier Falcons workforce were given an enormous season from Vic Beasley Jr., and with Beasley now in Tennessee, trainer Dan Quinn may depend upon every other former Ram in pass-rusher Dante Fowler Jr. as a imaginable NFL sack chief.

The 2016 season may had been lightning in a bottle. Maybe the Falcons cannot do it with out Shanahan as their offensive coordinator. What took place that 12 months, regardless that, will have to be a reminder of the way giant seasons can pop out of nowhere, even for veteran teams that appear locked to end at or round .500.

Chance to win Super Bowl LV: 1.0%
Chance to make the playoffs: 41.5%
Caesars’ Super Bowl odds: +5000

This past weekend’s news that the Bears will get started Mitchell Trubisky in Week 1 did not precisely excite a subset of Chicago fanatics, however I’m now not certain it issues all that a lot in the longer term. The Bears more than likely are not going to win a Super Bowl with both Trubisky or Nick Foles in a lead position. To make a deep playoff run, they are going to want the stars in different places on their roster to be amongst the ideally suited in soccer and go away the quarterback with as little to do as imaginable, without reference to who’s if truth be told taking snaps.

Naturally, a Chicago Super Bowl would more than likely get started on protection with its pass-rushing trio of Khalil Mack, Akiem Hicks and new addition Robert Quinn, who has led the league in pass rush win rate (PRWR) every of the previous two seasons. Defensive backs Kyle Fuller and Eddie Jackson, who excelled in 2018, want to go back to that shape in 2020. The Bears’ interception fee fell from a league-leading 4.4% in 2018 to simply 1.8% a 12 months in the past, a determine which they’re going to clearly hope to push in the other way this upcoming 12 months.

The remainder of the want checklist would see the offensive line take a step ahead and every other broad receiver, most likely Anthony Miller, to emerge along superstar wideout Allen Robinson as a viable moment possibility in the passing sport. We know each Foles and Trubisky can glance spectacular once they get sizzling, however neither participant looks as if a viable NFL quarterback when issues destroy down. The 2015 Broncos received a Super Bowl whilst alternating between a light Peyton Manning and Brock Osweiler, owing to a dominant protection. If the Bears simply play the sizzling hand at quarterback and their protection bounces again, may they observe the similar trail?

Chance to win Super Bowl LV: 1.0%
Chance to make the playoffs: 42.3%
Caesars’ Super Bowl odds: +1600

Most 13-3 teams that go back a Hall of Fame quarterback do not in finding themselves in the heart of the Super Bowl pack the following 12 months, however FPI used to be much less inspired with the Packers than that ultimate document signifies. I also think the Packers will take a step backward in 2020, even supposing they will have to nonetheless be in the thick of a wide-open race for the NFC North identify at 9-7 or so.

Caesars’ odds are extra positive, and it is not tricky to piece in combination a state of affairs in which Green Bay is excellent. Aaron Rodgers hasn’t been an MVP candidate since 2016, but when the determination to draft Jordan Love in the first around and every other 12 months in Matt LaFleur’s scheme pushes Rodgers’s point of play ahead at age 36, the Packers would have considered one of the ideally suited offenses in the league. They additionally fielded the league’s fourth-youngest protection in 2019, and whilst they have been uncovered badly in the NFC Championship Game, they may enhance from their 15th-placed DVOA end in 2019 if protection Darnell Savage improves and new addition Christian Kirksey remains wholesome at linebacker.



Stephania Bell expects a large season out of DeAndre Hopkins on account of his reliability and the way Cliff Kingsbury will make the most of him in the Cardinals’ offense.

In a department in which the Vikings are retooling, the Bears are propping up Mitchell Trubisky and the Lions may now not have an NFL-caliber head trainer, the Packers may declare a department identify only thru being the maximum competent workforce in the department. If they may be able to simply keep away from the 49ers in the postseason this time round …

Chance to win Super Bowl LV: 1.2%
Chance to make the playoffs: 47.1%
Caesars’ Super Bowl odds: +3500

FPI is unusually extra positive about the Browns, who might be regarded as a post-hype sleeper after a disastrous 2019 marketing campaign. Theoretically, with regards to the whole thing that were given folks serious about Cleveland heading into remaining season is again, even supposing quarterback Baker Mayfield, broad receiver Odell Beckham Jr. and defensive finish Myles Garrett every went thru their very own misplaced seasons for other causes a 12 months in the past. Coach Freddie Kitchens is clearly long past and changed by way of former Vikings offensive coordinator Kevin Stefanski, and whilst I’m positive the Browns may enhance enormously with higher training on the offensive facet of the ball, the compressed offseason is predicted to harm teams that have not had a lot time to apply underneath new coaches or new schemes.

If skill wins out and the Browns’ stars reside up to their prior expectancies, it is tricky to see many teams who possess extra upside. The department might be sticky, for the reason that the Ravens posted the league’s ideally suited document a 12 months in the past and the Steelers are most likely to enhance with competent quarterback play. I’ve critical questions on the Cleveland secondary, however having addressed their issues at take on and tight finish, the Browns have top-five offensive upside if Mayfield returns to shape. They can be a workforce no person needs to see in the postseason.

Chance to win Super Bowl LV: 1.6%
Chance to make the playoffs: 55.4%
Caesars’ Super Bowl odds: +3000

The Titans unusually got here inside of one sport of constructing it to the Super Bowl a 12 months in the past, and whilst they misplaced defensive coordinator Dean Pees to retirement and proper take on Jack Conklin to loose company, they are going to take a look at to run it again with the similar method. You’re going to see heavy doses of working again Derrick Henry and play-action alternatives for quarterback Ryan Tannehill. On protection, profitable the Jadeveon Clowney sweepstakes offers them an ideal run defender who can take over video games in stretches as a pass-rusher whilst taking part in throughout from edge rushers Harold Landry and Vic Beasley Jr. The Titans are good and well-coached, and so they gave the impression to hit a brand new stride after changing Marcus Mariota with Tannehill.

I’m frightened about what occurs if Tannehill cannot keep wholesome, however there is additionally a possibility that their 2019 draft magnificence seems to be the ideally suited in soccer if wideout A.J. Brown continues to enhance and defensive lineman Jeffery Simmons remains wholesome. They ran out of steam against the Chiefs, and so they more than likely may not be as dominant in the pink zone as they have been all over the postseason, however we have observed the Titans beat the ideally suited teams in soccer. For a gaggle that misplaced to the Jaguars, Broncos and Panthers a 12 months in the past, its trail to a department identify may well be averting losses in opposition to the teams that are not on its point.

Chance to win Super Bowl LV: 1.8%
Chance to make the playoffs: 44.9%
Caesars’ Super Bowl odds: +3000

You can see the issue of the NFC West baked into the Rams’ FPI odds; whilst teams corresponding to the Browns and Titans have a greater probability of constructing it to the playoffs, the Rams have a greater shot of profitable the Super Bowl if they may be able to end atop what’s arguably the league’s hardest department. It may really feel like eternally in the past, however we are handiest 19 months got rid of from L.A. making it to Super Bowl LIII, the place it used to be dispatched by the Patriots.

Last season used to be a hard step backward for the Rams, however even in a down 12 months, they completed 9-7 and would have made the playoffs underneath the new, 14-team layout. Sean McVay & Co. replied by way of putting in 3 new coordinators, jettisoning working again Todd Gurley and broad receiver Brandin Cooks for cap causes, and making an attempt to rebuild the entrance 4 on protection.

The factor they did not do, which may well be telling, is take a look at to repair the offensive line. They re-signed 38-year-old take on Andrew Whitworth and appear assured Rob Havenstein can go back to shape after a disastrous 2019. The inside is stuffed with younger gamers who have not but proved themselves to be NFL-caliber linemen; remaining 12 months, the Rams misplaced Joe Noteboom and Brian Allen to accidents. If they may be able to keep wholesome and provides quarterback Jared Goff extra time to throw, the Rams may glance extra like the offensive juggernaut of 2017 and 2018.

Chance to win Super Bowl LV: 1.9%
Chance to make the playoffs: 53.8%
Caesars’ Super Bowl odds: +2800

Vikings fanatics may argue that the rebuilt protection of 2020 might be an improve on the remaining run of Mike Zimmer’s former core in 2019. Minnesota let longtime individuals Xavier Rhodes, Everson Griffen and Trae Waynes all go away this offseason, however Rhodes and Waynes did not play nicely, and Griffen is now ably changed in the lineup by way of industry acquisition Yannick Ngakoue. If rookie first-rounder Jeff Gladney can step onto the area and play like an NFL-caliber nook in September, the Vikings may if truth be told be higher on protection.

Offense turns out a bit of tougher once they traded away broad receiver Stefon Diggs, even supposing they used a first-round choose on LSU superstar Justin Jefferson and will have to get a more fit season from Adam Thielen, who neglected the higher a part of 8 video games a season in the past. The best-case state of affairs for the Vikings is a wholesome marketing campaign from Dalvin Cook, who averaged 5.Three yards in line with raise and 102.Nine speeding yards in line with sport in the first part of 2019, handiest to fade badly, handle accidents and common 3.Three yards in line with raise and 52 yards in line with sport later on. If the Packers decline, Minnesota is the best-positioned workforce to win the NFC North.

Chance to win Super Bowl LV: 1.9%
Chance to make the playoffs: 59.2%
Caesars’ Super Bowl odds: +2500

In distinction to the Rams, the Colts’ superb playoff odds and rather low Super Bowl odds are a product in their placement in the AFC South. FPI sees Indy as the favorites to come away with the AFC South after including quarterback Philip Rivers and defensive take on DeForest Buckner this offseason however wonders whether or not it’s going to have the upside to cross a long way in the playoffs.

I will perceive why, for the reason that the Colts have been aggressively … common a 12 months in the past. They ranked 20th in DVOA, 19th in offensive DVOA, 19th in defensive DVOA and 16th in special-teams DVOA. They want to be nice someplace, and given how badly they struggled with accidents at broad receiver remaining season, offense is their ideally suited shot. Their line is not most likely to be as wholesome because it used to be a 12 months in the past, but when Rivers has time to throw, a wideout corps with T.Y. Hilton, Parris Campbell and rookie second-rounder Michael Pittman may well be so much scarier than many of us notice. Jonathan Taylor may also briefly emerge as considered one of the league’s subsequent nice backs.

For all I stated about them being common, the Colts did beat the Chiefs, Texans and Titans a 12 months in the past, conserving Kansas City to a season-low 13 issues in the procedure. I might nonetheless choose the Chiefs if the ones two met in the postseason, however the first and maximum essential step in profitable a Super Bowl continues to be making it to the playoffs. This workforce is in a great place to make it again there in 2020.

Chance to win Super Bowl LV: 2.2%
Chance to make the playoffs: 58.0%
Caesars’ Super Bowl odds: +2500

This one turns out easy. Start with a dominant younger protection. Add wholesome returns from quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, wideout JuJu Smith-Schuster and working again James Conner. Throw in a step again from the Ravens after a 14-2 season when the whole thing went proper. And you get a Steelers workforce proper in line to win the AFC North and compete for one ultimate Roethlisberger championship. Right?

It’s unhealthy to think that all the issues that went proper a 12 months in the past will occur once more and all the issues that went fallacious will repair themselves in case you are making an attempt to mission a workforce’s perhaps consequence. If we are having a look at the best-case state of affairs, regardless that, it is tricky to bring to mind many teams that experience the kind of upside on each offense and protection that the Steelers have on paper. I do not believe Minkah Fitzpatrick & Co. will drive as many takeaways as they did in 2019, and there is all the time going to be risk in depending on a 38-year-old quarterback coming off of elbow surgical operation, however the Steelers’ case for being nice is slightly obtrusive.

Chance to win Super Bowl LV: 3.0%
Chance to make the playoffs: 59.5%
Caesars’ Super Bowl odds: +2000

The trail ahead is not as transparent for the Patriots. Can they nonetheless depend on the league’s top-ranked protection from 2019? The league’s inner most cornerback intensity chart and Devin McCourty all go back, however the entrance seven is a multitude. They have misplaced six in their height 11 defenders by way of snap rely from a 12 months in the past, and whilst I’d consider Bill Belichick’s skill to trainer in a peculiar season greater than any one else’s, there is going to be some rebuilding time right here. Stephon Gilmore and the secondary additionally are not going to publish an interception fee of just about 5% this season.

Any Super Bowl-caliber season from the Patriots would most likely require a go back to shape for new quarterback Cam Newton after a foot harm zapped his 2019 season. The Newton we noticed from the first part of 2018 used to be excellent sufficient to dangle up his finish of a Super Bowl cut price, even supposing New England has even much less to be offering in phrases of guns after Mohamed Sanu failed to get well from an ankle harm and was cut last week. If Newton has an MVP-caliber season, the Patriots might be considered one of the ideally suited teams in soccer. Anything quick would more than likely go away them with out the upside they want to beat the Chiefs and Ravens in January.

Chance to win Super Bowl LV: 3.0%
Chance to make the playoffs: 57.7%
Caesars’ Super Bowl odds: +1200

Fact: Since profitable the Super Bowl in 2013, the Seahawks’ rank in defensive DVOA has declined in every of the six resulting seasons. Granted, for maximum of that point, it wasn’t precisely an issue: They fell from first in 2013 to moment, fourth and 5th over the 3 resulting campaigns. Over the previous 3 seasons, regardless that, Pete Carroll’s unit has dropped to 13th, 17th after which 21st a 12 months in the past.

Seattle has made wholesale adjustments to repair its secondary after the Legion of Boom moved on; whilst the very best may had been to draft and expand new starters, 3 of Seattle’s anticipated starters in the secondary (Jamal Adams, Quandre Diggs and Quinton Dunbar) have been got by means of industry over the previous 12 months. Carroll can have to hope that the building comes up entrance, the place the Seahawks will depend on 2019 first-rounder L.J. Collier and injured 2020 second-rounder Darrell Taylor to lend a hand create a go rush after shedding Jadeveon Clowney to the Titans.

They ranked in the backside 5 in each power fee and sack fee a season in the past, but when the secondary performs nicely, it would resolve the pass-rushing woes by way of forcing quarterbacks to dangle the soccer. If the protection bounces again into the height 10, Russell Wilson by myself will have to be sufficient to push the Seahawks to 11 wins and considered one of the height spots in the NFC. Fans are not recently allowed at CenturyLink Field, but when the Seahawks can host playoff video games in entrance of complete crowds in January, we already know the way devastating home-field merit can also be for this workforce.

Chance to win Super Bowl LV: 3.0%
Chance to make the playoffs: 61.1%
Caesars’ Super Bowl odds: +2500

As we get nearer to the height of the checklist, imagining a Super Bowl state of affairs for those teams turns into more straightforward and more straightforward. For the Bills, it is easy. Can Josh Allen develop into a league-average passer? Allen provides price as a runner, and we have observed teams make it to the Super Bowl with less-effective quarterbacks sooner than, however having to depend on a quarterback with below-average passing numbers reduces your margin for error. Buffalo ranked 7th in defensive DVOA a 12 months in the past, and whilst that used to be sufficient to make it again into the postseason for the moment time in 3 years, Allen wasn’t in a position to do sufficient to lend a hand push them past the Texans in the wild-card round.

For the Bills to win a Super Bowl with this model of Allen, they would wish to play like considered one of the 3 ideally suited defenses in soccer all through the postseason. They no doubt have the skill to do this, however even the ideally suited defenses in the league battle to be that excellent 12 months after 12 months. If Allen improves and turns into a median passer, their margin for error on protection will increase. And if Allen takes a larger step ahead with broad receiver Stefon Diggs and turns into an above-average quarterback, nicely, the Bills might be the ideally suited workforce in soccer.

Chance to win Super Bowl LV: 3.8%
Chance to make the playoffs: 64.5%
Caesars’ Super Bowl odds: +2000

Injuries bogged down the Eagles as they attempted to make a push into and thru the playoffs in 2018 and 2019, and with offensive linemen Brandon Brooks and Andre Dillard already carried out for the season, broad receiver Alshon Jeffery now not able to get started the 12 months and first-round choose Jalen Reagor in doubt for Week 1, the computer virus is biting once more in 2020. I do know that the Eagles received a Super Bowl with out Carson Wentz in 2017, however you have got to determine that their ideally suited probability of profitable comes to their beginning quarterback staying wholesome thru the finish of the common season for the first time since 2016. And their ideally suited method to stay Wentz wholesome comes to the remainder of the offensive line conserving up over the rest of the marketing campaign.

The Eagles have develop into extra of a stars-and-scrubs workforce since that Super Bowl victory, owing to some contractual possible choices and Wentz’s personal extension. Those stars have to keep wholesome and productive. Players corresponding to wideout DeSean Jackson, tight finish Zach Ertz, edge rusher Derek Barnett and new industry acquisition Darius Slay can also be difference-makers when they are on the area, however Philly’s trail to a Super Bowl calls for all of them taking part in one thing shut to 16 video games. Howie Roseman could also be considered one of the maximum competitive basic managers in the league when it comes to in-season trades; a midyear industry for lend a hand on protection, both at linebacker or in the secondary, may come into play.

Chance to win Super Bowl LV: 3.8%
Chance to make the playoffs: 63.4%
Caesars’ Super Bowl odds: +1100

The Bucs are nearer to a Super Bowl than you could suppose, in section as a result of their protection is more than likely higher than you pictured it after remaining season. Tampa Bay ranked 29th in scoring protection, however that used to be most commonly a made from Jameis Winston and the offense. After you strip out his seven pick-sixes and account for the indisputable fact that Todd Bowles’ protection faced a league-high 189 drives and inherited the league’s worst average starting field position, Tampa Bay’s sixth-place end in defensive DVOA makes extra sense. Those problems are not likely to recur with turnover-averse Tom Brady as the Bucs’ new quarterback.

Of route, Brady is 43 years previous and out of doors of the Belichick bubble for the first time in his occupation. There are not any promises he consents with Bruce Arians’ downfield passing assault, and with restricted apply time, I’d be expecting some hiccups early in the season. If Brady and tight finish Rob Gronkowski seem like their previous selves and first-round choose Tristan Wirfs solidifies issues at proper take on, it is a workforce with no important weak spot. The largest factor protecting Tampa from a greater projection is the different juggernaut in the NFC South.

Chance to win Super Bowl LV: 4.8%
Chance to make the playoffs: 71.0%
Caesars’ Super Bowl odds: +1300

The Cowboys are more than likely having a look to trip a trail like that of the 2016 Falcons to glory. Advanced metrics already concept their offense used to be on that kind of point, with Dak Prescott & Co. score moment in DVOA and fourth in FPI remaining season. Dallas wishes middle Joe Looney to step in as an in a position alternative for the retired Travis Frederick and for new trainer Mike McCarthy to let incumbent offensive coordinator Kellen Moore do his factor. McCarthy is saying the right things now, however so much can exchange as soon as issues kick off.



Greg McElroy takes factor with the place Aaron Rodgers is ranked in ESPN’s height 100 NFL gamers for the 2020 season.

The protection more than likely simply has to get to league common for the Cowboys to make a vital playoff push, even supposing shedding defensive take on Gerald McCoy to a season-ending harm did not lend a hand their probabilities. They lower veteran protection Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, and they do not seem to have an interest in Earl Thomas, even supposing that may well be matter to exchange. Dallas posted the league’s third-worst interception fee remaining 12 months at 1.2%; if that quantity rises above league common, the mixture of a dominant offense and a number of quick fields may web it the height seed in the NFC.

Chance to win Super Bowl LV: 11.7%
Chance to make the playoffs: 81.5%
Caesars’ Super Bowl odds: +750

You’ll realize there is a giant soar in Super Bowl odds right here. FPI gave the 49ers just a 2.8% probability of attaining the Super Bowl heading into remaining season and a 1.1% probability of snagging the Vince Lombardi Trophy. I used to be more optimistic about their chances of making it to the postseason, even supposing I can be truthful and admit that I did not suppose they have been about to make it to Miami. While they did not win in the longer term, the Niners getting that a long way is a reminder of the way simply how briefly an enormous turnaround can come. San Francisco have been 14-47 since Jim Harbaugh left for Michigan, after which they received 15 video games between the 2019 common season and playoffs.

To get again and over the height, they want quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo to keep wholesome and a few of his receivers to sign up for him. We already know the way nice the defensive position can also be, however the 49ers’ protection took a step backward when it misplaced linebacker Kwon Alexander and protection Jaquiski Tartt to harm at midseason. On the complete, the Niners had the league’s seventh-most injured protection by way of adjusted video games misplaced; if they may be able to be fitter on protection and the Seahawks take a step backward, as anticipated, San Francisco may run this again in 2020.

Chance to win Super Bowl LV: 13.2%
Chance to make the playoffs: 82.6%
Caesars’ Super Bowl odds: +1100

While they were not in a position to execute a sign-and-trade deal for Jadeveon Clowney, the Saints have the inner most roster in all of soccer. You can choose holes right here and there, however even supposing Drew Brees have been to fall off at age 41, the Saints could be as well-positioned as any one in soccer to handle their beginning quarterback suffering, given the presence of Taysom Hill and Jameis Winston in reserve.

I’ve written that I expect the Saints to decline after posting the fewest turnovers in a 16-game season in league historical past, however I nonetheless suppose they’re going to be a 10- or 11-win workforce and rank amongst the ideally suited in the NFC. I might usually level towards home-field merit as a purpose for them to goal, however they have got misplaced at domestic in every of the previous two postseasons, and it is unclear whether or not fanatics will likely be allowed into stadiums come January. I nonetheless suppose they are in a dome given Brees’ accuracy, and they’re going to have to cope with the Buccaneers, however it will be a surprise if New Orleans neglected the playoffs.

Chance to win Super Bowl LV: 16.1%
Chance to make the playoffs: 91.2%
Caesars’ Super Bowl odds: +700

The handiest factor Baltimore did not do remaining season used to be win a postseason sport, as Tennessee ruled in the pink zone and on fourth down to lend a hand pull off an upset of the 14-2 Ravens. It’s tricky for any workforce to stay that point of play up; over the previous 30 years, teams that received 14 or extra video games in a 12 months averaged 10 wins the following season, with 5 of the 20 teams failing to even publish a profitable document. The obtrusive state of affairs there could be if Lamar Jackson have been to get injured. Jackson does an improbable activity of averting giant hits by way of getting out of bounds, however any quarterback who runs as ceaselessly as he does goes to be matter to extra chance than a passer who does not take the ball on designed rushes.

If Jackson does not get injured, the Ravens will have to be in line for double-digit wins and a go back go back and forth to the playoffs. They’ll omit a couple of departed long run Hall of Famers in protection Earl Thomas and guard Marshal Yanda, and it will be tricky to consider cornerback Marcus Peters taking part in slightly in addition to he did remaining season after coming over from the Rams, however the Ravens have made upgrades alongside their defensive position and will have to get extra out of second-year breakout candidate Marquise Brown at broad receiver.

In taking a more in-depth take a look at the Titans loss, I didn’t find anything to lead me to believe that the Titans had stumbled on a formula to stop Jackson. Future Super Bowl winners corresponding to Peyton Manning, Eli Manning and John Elway have began their playoff careers with a couple of losses. If you need to imagine there is something fallacious with Jackson that handiest pops up in the postseason, you are entitled to your opinion. If the Ravens make it again to the playoffs this season, I believe they’re going to do extra injury than they have got in Jackson’s first two journeys.

Chance to win Super Bowl LV: 21.1%
Chance to make the playoffs: 94.0%
Caesars’ Super Bowl odds: +400

Forget Patrick Mahomes for a moment. If you have been going to craft the profile of a workforce most likely to make a Super Bowl run in a season suffering from COVID-19, you’ll construct the Chiefs. You would wish a workforce with a mythical trainer and continuity alongside its training personnel. The Chiefs go back Andy Reid and their complete training personnel. You would wish to additionally go back a veteran roster, and the handiest gamers who performed greater than part of the offensive or defensive snaps who are not again for Kansas City in 2020 are guards Laurent Duvernay-Tardif and Cam Erving. The Chiefs are in a rather simple department and face the league’s 13th-easiest agenda.

Of route, you get all of that and the league’s ideally suited quarterback. The Chiefs can if truth be told enhance on their offense from 2019, each by way of getting a complete season out of Mahomes and by way of bettering in the pink zone. They may also have upgraded at a place of (relative) weak spot by way of changing the likes of Damien Williams and LeSean McCoy with first-round choose Clyde Edwards-Helaire, giving them a receiving again they have not had since chopping Kareem Hunt.

The easiest way I will put it’s this: Everyone else has to exceed expectancies to win the Super Bowl. All the Chiefs have to do is reside up to expectancies and be the Chiefs.


Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here